Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, light west wind, alpine temperatures around -17 C.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy, isolated flurries with a trace of snow, light southwest wind, alpine temperatures around -12 C. 

TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy, isolated flurries with a trace of snow, light west wind with moderate gusts at ridgetop, alpine temperatures around -12 C. 

WEDNESDAY: Mainly cloudy, light northwest wind, alpine temperatures around -12 C.  

Over the weekend, observers reported several large cornice falls and numerous small to large (up to size 2) natural and skier-triggered wind slab avalanches on slopes facing northwest, west, and southwest above 2400 m. An explosive triggered avalanche reportedly stepped down to a deeper layer. A few point releases from rocks on solar aspects were also observed, although they did not run far or gather mass. 

Last weekend there were a few reports of large avalanches (size 2.5-3) on southeast aspects in the alpine. These avalanches released naturally, possibly due to the influence of solar radiation or cornice falls. See a photo here. A large human triggered avalanche (size 2.5) on buried surface hoar was last reported near Quartz Creek on Feb 3, and a small (size 1) explosive triggered avalanche on surface hoar was reported on Monday. While there is an overall trend in decreasing likelihood of avalanches, there still remains a lingering possibility to trigger a persistent slab avalanche in isolated steep terrain features.

Winds have varied in strength and direction over the past week, loading cornices and forming shallow wind slabs at upper elevations that may be possible to trigger. Watch for these wind slabs in unusual places as complicated cross-loading and reverse-loading patterns are prevalent. Wind slabs may overlie weak, sugary, faceted snow, meaning that they could break wider than expected and will likely be slow to bond. 

In wind-sheltered areas, the upper snowpack is becoming soft and faceted with the cold temperatures. A weak layer formed in late January and is now 30-60 cm deep. In the northern Purcells this layer has been reported as a surface hoar layer at treeline and below treeline elevations, but a combination of facets on crusts could exist at all elevations throughout the region. 

The northern Purcells also have an older surface hoar layer that can still be found 60-100 cm deep at treeline. Additional weak layers may exist near the bottom of the snowpack and should be considered in steep rocky areas with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack.

• Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
• Approach lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.
• Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.