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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 10th, 2019–Feb 11th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Cascades - West.

You are likely to trigger a large slab avalanche, particularly where winds have formed stiffer snow surfaces or where a convergence zone sets up (likely in the Mountain Loop area) and delivers hefty snow totals. This round of snow Sunday night brings us closer to a threshold for more widespread avalanche activity. Choose lower-angle and simpler terrain where the consequences of the current uncertainty will be lower.

Discussion

Snow and Avalanche Discussion

Unusual avalanches have been reported in the adjacent Mt. Baker zone. When we see unusual avalanches, it’s usually a good time to choose terrain where we know the consequences of a mistake will be small.

Snowpack Discussion

Regional Synopsis Coming Soon

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

A forecast convergence zone set in the Mountain Loop area late Sunday night will produce more widespread avalanche activity. All the recent light, fluffy, unconsolidated snow will eventually form a slab as incremental loading continues to add weight. 6-10” of expected storm snow will fall on an estimated 6-12” of low-density storm snow that fell Friday afternoon through Saturday night. These snow layers rest above older faceted snow, which will eventually fail under stress of incremental loading patterns. Watch for wind-affected snow which may also form a slab. Storm slabs can be avoided by sticking to low angle supported slopes. Cracking or whumphing of the snow is a valuable warning sign that anticipated problems are in your terrain.

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1