Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Cold temperatures will help preserve recent storm snow instabilities found on wind loaded aspects near and above treeline. In the steep wind sheltered terrain, watch for small loose dry avalanches near terrain traps like cliff bands where even small avalanches can have big consequences.
Detailed Forecast
Showers should early Tuesday with light winds and cold temperatures. This weather should allow for continued very slow settlement of the recent storm snow, allowing for a slow decreasing trend in the avalanche danger overall.
In particular, watch for any lingering wind slab on lee aspects near and above treeline that could still be human triggered.Â
In some steep terrain, watch for small loose dry avalanches near terrain traps like cliff bands where even small avalanches can have big consequences.Â
Even though the lower part of the below treeline band is filling in, watch for early season travel hazards such as barely covered rocks and open creeks.Â
Snowpack Discussion
Weather and Snowpack
A front crossed the Olympics Friday, causing a warming trend and created a crust layer up to about 5600 ft on all aspects reported Saturday in the Hurricane area.  A much stronger front Saturday night delivering a welcome 1-2 feet of snow across the west slopes of the Cascades and Olympics through mid-day Sunday, with additional showers Monday. New storm snow from Saturday night through Monday afternoon at the snowdepth plot at Hurricane Ridge has been about 16 inches. This pattern has also ushered in the coldest air mass of the season. Â
Avalanche problems should be confined to the most recent storm snow and  we are not tracking any weak layers in the lower or middle of the snowpack at this time.Â
Recent Observations
The new snowfall received Saturday night through Monday was very low density, but wind transport of the new snow helped form some cornices along ridgelines. NPS rangers reported up to 2 natural slab avalanches in the Hurricane Ridge area that likely occurred Saturday night during the storm. One was in Maggie's Bowl, on an east or southeast aspect and ran at least 100 ft. The slab depth was estimated around 10".  Later Sunday, NPS rangers reported most of the avalanche activity revolved around loose dry avalanches in steep less wind affected areas below ridges. There were isolated reports of human triggered soft slab releases in wind loaded terrain that released down to the old snow surface.Â
NWAC pro observer, Matt Schonwald visited Hurricane on Thursday and reported widespread wind effects, but a generally well bonded snowpack and snow profiles in pits that lacked a slab structure. The snow was found to be unconsolidated at lower elevations making terrain traps and creek crossings a hazard.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind lips of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Cornices can never be trusted and avoiding them is necessary for safe backcountry travel. Stay well back from ridgeline areas with cornices. They often overhang the ridge edge can be triggered remotely. Avoid areas underneath cornices. Even small Cornice Fall can trigger a larger avalanche and large Cornice Fall can easily crush a human. Periods of significant temperature warm-up are times to be particularly aware.
A corniced ridgeline. A large cornice has formed at the top of the ridge. A smaller cornice has formed to the left of the trees from crossloading.
Cornices are easy to identify and are confined to lee and cross-loaded ridges, sub-ridges, and sharp convexities. They are easiest to trigger during periods of rapid growth (new snow and wind), rapid warming, and during rain-on-snow events. Cornices often catch people by surprise when they break farther back onto flatter areas than expected.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Loose Dry
Release of dry unconsolidated snow. These avalanches typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. Loose Dry avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Dry avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Loose Dry avalanches are usually relatively harmless to people. They can be hazardous if you are caught and carried into or over a terrain trap (e.g. gully, rocks, dense timber, cliff, crevasse) or down a long slope. Avoid traveling in or above terrain traps when Loose Dry avalanches are likely.
Loose Dry avalanche with the characteristic point initiation and fan shape.
Loose dry avalanches exist throughout the terrain, release at or below the trigger point, and can run in densely-treed areas. Avoid very steep slopes and terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1