Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 4th, 2012 9:36AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Cornices, Wind Slabs and Storm Slabs.

pgoddard, Avalanche Canada

Northwest Inland.

Avalanche danger will peak during the heat of the day.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Expect generally fine weather through the forecast period. Light winds, warm daytime temperatures at alpine elevations and no precipitation.

Avalanche Summary

Large looming cornices are likely to start falling off with warm temperatures and solar radiation. Large slab avalanches that propagate across entire slopes are possible, especially with heavy triggers such as step-down avalanches, cliff-drops, and cornice drops.

Snowpack Summary

Total snowpack depths are well above average or even new record depths for this time of year. Weaknesses within the upper snowpack and the facets and surface hoar buried mid-January, create the potential for large step-down avalanches, but things seem to be settling rapidly.Snowpack tests on the mid-January facets down 80-150cm consistently produce sudden fractures and this weakness seems to be particularly touchy below 1500m where it is shallower and sits on a crust. Weak wind slabs and large fragile cornices are lurking in exposed lee and cross-loaded terrain.

Problems

Cornices

Cornices are expected to become unstable with anticipated warm alpine temperatures.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 6

Wind Slabs

Below ridge crests, behind terrain features and in cross-loaded gullies.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 5

Storm Slabs

Facets down 40-60cm may take some time to gain strength. Watch steep slopes, convex rolls, and unsupported slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 4

Valid until: Feb 5th, 2012 3:00AM