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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 16th, 2024–Jan 17th, 2024
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

A change in the weather pattern means the deep freeze is ending! Storms will bring snow and wind to Roger's Pass, creating a fresh stormslab.

The temperatures are still forecast to be chilly, ensure you have emergency clothing layers and a good time buffer to be back at the car before dark

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Natural activity during the cold snap has been limited to loose/dry and wind slabs in Rogers Pass.

Yesterday there was a skier triggered avalanche on Cheops on a steep west aspect. This was a windslab on top of a crust and ran for approximately 200m.

Bruins Ridge saw a sz 2 wind slab fail on a SW aspect, most likely on the underlying suncrust.

Several thin sz 1-2 hard slabs were observed on Christiana Ridge and Fidelity Mtn.

*All noted avalanches failed on a suncrust.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate winds (S/SW switching to N/NE) have redistributed 40-50cms of snow into variable soft to hard surface slabs. These sit upon a sun crust on solar aspects, firm wind effect in the alpine, and soft facetted snow on sheltered N aspects.

Below 2100m there is a crust down 70-80cm (from Dec 5th/6th).

The Dec 1 surface hoar layer is down 90-120cm and is decomposing. However, it is still reactive in isolated snowpack tests.

Weather Summary

The Arctic air will be pushed out by a series of storms. We'll see modest snowfall amounts but thankfully temperatures will warm up abit!

Tonight: flurries amounting to 4cm, Alp low -15°C, light south winds.

Wed: Flurries (6 cm), Alp high -15°C, light E wind.

Thurs: mix of sun/cloud/flurries, trace snow, Alp high -13°C, wind: SE 20km/hr.

Friday: Flurries(9cms), trace amount of snow, Alp high -7°C, light ridge wind.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Watch for areas of hard wind slab on alpine features.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Fresh snow with wind has created a new storm slab problem. North winds and valley bottom gap winds have created slabs in non-typical places, heads up! Expect the new slab to be most reactive on south and west aspects where buried crusts exist.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2