Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 28th, 2024–Feb 29th, 2024
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

High avalanche hazard, avoid all avalanche terrain.

50cm of new snow will over load a fragile snowpack that is already primed for human triggering.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Natural activity is expected to peak Wednesday night, with widespread size 3 and larger avalanches. Natural avalanches will be likely on Thursday, and human triggered very likely.

On Tuesday a group triggered a size 3 avalanche from ridge top at tree line in the camp west area failing on the Feb 3rd crust (see photos). Numerous other human triggered avalanches have been report throughout the region on this layer.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow for this week will total around 120 cm by the end of Thursday. The storm will end warm and bring some rain to below treeline. Moderate to strong southerly winds have loaded lee features.

The Feb 3rd crust in under the storm snow, and will be the main failure plane of concern during this period of heavy loading.

The mid to lower snowpack is well settled, except in isolated areas of the alpine where an unusually thin & faceted snowpack exists.

Weather Summary

The storm peaks tonight, moving out Thurs, as freezing levels fall and convective flurries forecast.

Tonight: Flurries, 15 cm, mod/strong SW winds, low -5°C, snow lvl 900m

Thurs: Snow, 10 cm, mod SW winds, High -8°C, Snow lvl valley bottom.

Fri: Isolated flurries, 5 cm, light/mod S winds, High -9°C

Sat: Cloudy, light E winds, High -9°C

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
  • Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain free of overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Avoid the runout zones of avalanche paths. Very large avalanches have been running full path.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

A second storm will dump 40-60cm of snow in addition to the 60cm that fell on Sunday forming a deep storm slab, accompanied by strong winds this slab is even deeper and more reactive on wind loaded terrain features.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

Avalanches initiating within the storm snow may step down to the Feb 3rd melt freeze crust, if they do the crust will promote wider propagation and produce much larger and more destructive avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3.5