Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Incoming storm snow may have a difficult time bonding to the crusts and facets that currently live at the top of our snowpack.
Give respect to loose sluffs that may gather enough mass to bury a person in a terrain trap or carry them over cliffs.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
A few point-release dry sluffs were noted from steep terrain on Tupper and Macdonald yesterday. Otherwise no new activity in the highway corridor.
Two reported skier-triggered avalanches, one on Terminal Pk and the other in the Connaught drainage, were both slabs failing on the prominent crust down ~30-40cm. Each ran approximately 150 meters. Expect more of this with incoming snow loading up the firm crust.
Snowpack Summary
Strong N'ly winds last week redistributed the 20-40cms of low density surface snow.
A buried crust (widespread below 2500m) is ~20-40cm down, with a variety of layers overlying it (low density pow in protected lees, soft to hard slabs where wind has hit the slope).
The mid-lower snowpack has strengthened. Isolated pockets of shallow, weak/faceted snow can be found in the high alpine.
Watch for firm crusts, frozen debris, and shallow snowpack hazards below Tree-line.
Weather Summary
A weak disturbance this week will bring clouds, light snow, and freezing levels rising to 1500m with daytime warming, dropping to valley bottom at night.
Tonight: Cloudy/flurries, Alp low -5°C, light ridgetop winds.
Tues: Flurries, 5-10cm, Alp high -4°C, light/gusting mod SW wind.
Wed: Cloudy/isolated flurries, Alp high -5°C, light/mod SW winds.
Thurs: Cloudy/isolated flurries, Alp high -5°C, light W winds.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Dry
Incoming storm snow will be landing on a very firm sun crust on solar aspects and a variety of surfaces on polar aspects. Steep slopes will try to shed this new snow, which could gather significant mass below and be very problematic in terrain traps.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Wind Slabs
Recent strong NE winds have created firm wind slabs in the Alpine. Though stubborn to trigger, there may be pockets of slab sitting on weak facets, waiting for the right load to set them free to flow downhill.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2