Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cascades - North East.
The avalanche danger should decrease on Saturday but the decrease will be a moving target and careful snowpack evaluation and cautious routefinding will be essential.
Detailed Forecast
Decreasing winds and mostly light snow showers should be seen over the Cascade east slopes on Saturday with much lower snow levels and much cooler temperatures. Not a lot of snow is expected following the front Friday but we will see how it goes. The avalanche danger should decrease on Saturday but the decrease will be a moving target and careful snowpack evaluation and cautious routefinding will be essential.
Layers of recent or new wind and storm slab may need a day or more to mostly stabilize. Water may also need a day to drain from the upper snow pack below about 3-4000 feet.
Recent moderate to strong southwest to west winds will make wind slab most likely on northwest to southeast slopes but keep an eye out on all aspects in areas of more complex terrain. Watch for firmer wind transported snow from Friday and possible deeper or covered wind transported layers such as from Tuesday.
New storm slab formed on Friday may need a day to mostly stabilize on Saturday. Storm slab is most likely in area that experienced more than a few hours of rapidly accumulating snow.
Avoid areas on ridges and mountain tops were a cornice might be present and avoid slopes below cornices.
Snowpack Discussion
Weather and Snowpack
The most recent wet warm storm arrived on Valentines Day 2/14 and formed the uppermost strong rain crust in our snowpack in the Central East and Southeast Cascades while only a thin freezing rain crust was observed in the Washington Pass area.
A series of disturbances in cool, NW flow aloft from Saturday 2/25 through Tuesday 2/28 deposited 2-16 inches snow along the east slopes of the Cascades. Very strong alpine west winds were seen in most of the Olympics and Cascades on Tuesday.
Southwest flow aloft began to ramp up again on Thursday as the first in a new series of fronts crossed the Northwest. Strong southwest flow is carrying a second stronger front across the Northwest on Friday evening. Along the Cascade east slopes this will be causing strong southwest alpine winds and heavier moist or denser new snow above about 3-4000 ft and wet snow or rain below about 3-4000 ft.
Recent Observations
North
AÂ report from the NC Heli Guides indicates a cycle of natural and ski triggered wind slab avalanches during the wind event on Tuesday and Wednesday 2/28-3/1. About 50-80 cm of storm snow was found with a good bond to the the Valentine's Day crust. About 20-30 cm of recent snow was covering about 10 cm of wind slab in some areas.
A party of four skiing at Washington Pass near the highway hairpin on the east side of the pass were hit by a natural cornice released avalanche on Tuesday afternoon. Four people were caught and carried up to 1000 ft downslope. Fortunately there were no fatalities and no full burials but there were apparently some injuries. The release occurred on a very steep slope at the top of a northeast facing bowl at about 6600 ft.
Windy conditions prevented the North Cascades Heli Guides from flying on Wednesday.
Another recent and large cornice failure was observed by the NCH on Thursday in the Cutthroat drainage. Plenty of other unreleased large cornices were noted.
A NC Mountain Guides report for Friday for the Delancey area indicates heavy snow in the near and below treeline and 35-60 cm of storm snow on the Valentine's Day crust. Moderate planar shears were found in recent storm snow layers. New storm slab was forming and ski tests were giving storm slab and loose dry releases. Whoomping and cracking was seen above 6600 ft.
Central
No recent observations. Â
South
No recent observations.Â
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Storm Slabs
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind lips of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Cornices can never be trusted and avoiding them is necessary for safe backcountry travel. Stay well back from ridgeline areas with cornices. They often overhang the ridge edge can be triggered remotely. Avoid areas underneath cornices. Even small Cornice Fall can trigger a larger avalanche and large Cornice Fall can easily crush a human. Periods of significant temperature warm-up are times to be particularly aware.
A corniced ridgeline. A large cornice has formed at the top of the ridge. A smaller cornice has formed to the left of the trees from crossloading.
Cornices are easy to identify and are confined to lee and cross-loaded ridges, sub-ridges, and sharp convexities. They are easiest to trigger during periods of rapid growth (new snow and wind), rapid warming, and during rain-on-snow events. Cornices often catch people by surprise when they break farther back onto flatter areas than expected.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1