Avalanche Forecast

Mostly sunny weather is expected along with gradually diminishing northwest ridgetop winds. Temperatures should begin Saturday very cool and gradually warm through the afternoon, especially at mid and upper elevations. This weather will help to slowly stabilize any previously formed wind slab layers near ridges leading to an overall decreasing danger.

Continue to watch for evidence of recent wind transport as there may be heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features, such as steep rollovers below ridges. Continue to evaluate snow and terrain carefully. 

The front that cross the area Thursday through Thursday night began quite warm and cooled with precipitation and continued to cool throughout. This initially produced rain or heavy wet snow that gradually turned to snow, eventually reaching lower elevations.  This caused a favorable profile of new snow with very good bonding of new snow to the old wet snow surface. New snow amount ranges are based mainly from north to south but also with elevations. Upper elevations and most areas in the north received 20-30 cm (8-12 inches) new snow with lower elevations and areas in the south getting 10-20 cm (4-8 inches). The new snow has formed a good bond to the newly forming crust as reported by several professionals from Mt Baker, Stevens Pass back country, Snoqualmie, Crystal Mountain and Paradise on Mt Rainier.  To see the video click here.

The older snowpack consists mainly of  a mixture of crust layers and consolidated old snow layers.  Recent, mostly dry periods as well as warm temperatures and periods of sunshine have all combined to form a mostly stable old snowpack, void of distinctive weak layers per numerous recent field tests.  There are some older faceted layers both above and below a mid December melt-freeze crust in some areas, however multiple bridging crusts are mostly present in the upper snowpack and the weaker grains are showing some rounding. 

The biggest current concern would be for any newly formed wind slab layers as Thursday's front was accompanied by very strong ridge top winds, initially southwesterly, shifting to northwesterly.  While winds were strong with wind transport evident in many areas, multiple tests have all indicated an overall good stability and any stiffer surface snow has been non-reactive to ski tests, stability tests and most explosive tests as well. 

Snowdepths remain well below normal, generally ranging from 1-2 meters in the alpine regions to less than 1 meter near and below treeline with significantly lower snowdepths below about 3000 feet. 

The avalanche danger will continue to be low at the lower elevations due to the low snowpack.