Avalanche Forecast

A weak short wave in a weak west flow moved over the Northwest Thursday and Thursday night. This caused light showers west of the crest with lower snow levels. Northwest flow should maintain some light showers mainly west of the crest on Friday.

The light amounts of rain or snow Thursday to Friday should not significantly change snow conditions in most areas west of the crest.

Update: The expected convergence Thursday night gave some snowfall in a slightly unexpected area with about 3-5 inches of snowfall from about Crystal Mountain to Mt Rainier with light to moderate west winds. So this area has been updated for unlikely small storm slab in the near and above treeline.

As a result of the overall low snowpack, especially below treeline, watch for terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation.

A benign weather pattern with mild temperatures has been seen in the Olympics and Cascades for about the past 10 days.

There has been a lot of consolidation and melting and freezing of surface layers of the snow pack in all areas including west of the crest. There were some reports of small loose wet avalanches on steep solar slopes a few days ago. But there have been no reports of avalanches more recently mainly just some reports of spring-like corn skiing at times.

Pro-observer Dallas Glass was at Paradise on Wednesday and reported some shallow softening on solar slopes, MF clusters throughout the snowpack and no instability.

Reports this morning west of the crest indicate strong thick surface crusts. Overall the mid and lower snowpack west of the crest should consist of layers of stable consolidated rounded grains or melt forms and crusts from multiple warm periods this winter.