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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 18th, 2014–Feb 19th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

New snowfall overnight will add additional load to the recently formed windslabs observed on lee features at treeline and above.  Strong winds in the forecast will result in further loading and increased sensitivity to human triggering.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Light snowfall began late afternoon with up to 15cm possible overnight and into Wednesday AM.  Winds are forecast to be strong to extreme resulting in some redistribution of storm snow onto lee features.

Avalanche Summary

no new observed or reported

Snowpack Summary

Test profile on a north aspect at TL highlighted a prominent weakness at the interface between the old surface crust and the recent storm snow.  Compression tests showed easy to moderate results down 77cm.  Numerous large and small settlements observed at treeline on a variety of aspects.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

The slab on top of this layer is becoming stiffer and more susceptible to widespread propagation across terrain .
Avoid cross loaded slopes at or above treeline.>Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

The basal weakness remains, and incoming snow and wind may lead to a re-awakening of this problem.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 5