Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 28th, 2015 3:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Deep Persistent Slabs and Loose Wet.

jeremy.mackenzie, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

Large to very large avalanches are still occurring at higher elevations. Cautious terrain decisions are advised.

Summary

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

A mix of sun and cloud expected for the next couple of days with Alpine temperatures between -6 and -8 degrees. Winds will be west at 25 to 30km/h. No precipitation is expected until Sunday, and then only a trace amount is forecast.

Avalanche Summary

Solar triggered loose wet avalanches up to size 1.0 continued today. Two notable slab avalanches also occurred in the past 24hrs. A size 3.0 was observed on a steep N aspect at 2600m. This fracture was between 30 and 100cm deep and propagated 450m wide. The second slide was a size 2.0 slab likely triggered by a loose wet sluff initiating in the cliffs above. This slab was between 30 and 50cm deep, but did not propagate very wide.

Snowpack Summary

Crusts dominate below treeline and on solar aspects at all elevations. Solar aspects were melting again by midday today due to intense radiation. Wind slabs are widespread in the Alpine and open areas at Treeline and still seem reactive in steeper terrain. Test profile at 2200m NE asp today indicate sudden planar compression test results in the moderate range down 90cm on the Nov facets and depth hoar.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs dominate the landscape in the Alpine and open areas at Treeline. Steep N and E aspects are the most concerning terrain features. Wide propagations are possible due to the density of the slabs.

Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.>Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded features>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

The mid-December layer (buried 35 to 50cm) and the weak November basal layers are still active in stability tests and recent avalanche activity. See Avalanche Activity Discussion for details on two recent slab avalanches.

Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 5

Loose Wet

Clear skies and sunny conditions are delivering intense radiation to steep solar aspects. Crusts are breaking down near midday and loose wet avalanches are occurring daily.

Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >Avoid travelling on ledges and cliffs where sluffing may have severe consequences.>Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 29th, 2015 2:00PM