Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 16th, 2011 9:21AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada Karl, Avalanche Canada

We have very little information from this region. If you have been in the mountains, send us an email: forecaster@avalanche.ca and let us know what you saw.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Due to limited field observations

Weather Forecast

A fast moving storm coming through the Columbias tonight will likely be much less intense in the Purcells. While there's some uncertainty, I'm guessing favoured areas will see 10cm at most overnight Wednesday and only light snow or flurries by Thursday morning. Winds will probably be moderate to strong and variable

Avalanche Summary

A cycle of natural avalanche activity was observed in Quartz Creek on Sunday. Wind slabs (20cm deep) and persistent slabs (60cm deep) were observed. Persistent slabs were propagating widely and running on a weakness towards the base of the snowpack. Observations are limited to the northern Purcells so I don't know if this kind of thing is still occurring here. Avalanche activity may pick up a bit if winds and new snow arrive, more so if the forecast is wrong and more snow falls rather than less.

Snowpack Summary

There is significant variability in the snowpack across the region. Snowpack depth at treeline varies from around 40-130cm. Up to 50cm of snow fell late last week and over the weekend, which was redistributed by strong winds blowing first from the south and then from the north-west. A basal layer of facets was reported in the Dogtooth Range, with a weak interface between the lower facets and recent storm snow. Observations are limited. New snow and wind are in the forecast although not as much as in the Columbias to the west. Some new windslab formation is possible, especially if the actual amount of snow is more than what the forecast calls for.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Old windslabs still may be a problem, I don't have enough new information to be sure. Some new windslabs may form Wednesday night, especially if snowfall and winds are higher than forecast.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
I have no new information but I'm calling this a persistent slab problem for now. These take time take time to gain strength. Until we know more, steep or exposed terrain should be treated with suspicion.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Nov 17th, 2011 3:00AM