Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to limited field observations

A fast moving storm coming through the Columbias tonight will likely be much less intense in the Purcells. While there's some uncertainty, I'm guessing favoured areas will see 10cm at most overnight Wednesday and only light snow or flurries by Thursday morning. Winds will probably be moderate to strong and variable

A cycle of natural avalanche activity was observed in Quartz Creek on Sunday. Wind slabs (20cm deep) and persistent slabs (60cm deep) were observed. Persistent slabs were propagating widely and running on a weakness towards the base of the snowpack. Observations are limited to the northern Purcells so I don't know if this kind of thing is still occurring here. Avalanche activity may pick up a bit if winds and new snow arrive, more so if the forecast is wrong and more snow falls rather than less.

There is significant variability in the snowpack across the region. Snowpack depth at treeline varies from around 40-130cm. Up to 50cm of snow fell late last week and over the weekend, which was redistributed by strong winds blowing first from the south and then from the north-west. A basal layer of facets was reported in the Dogtooth Range, with a weak interface between the lower facets and recent storm snow. Observations are limited. New snow and wind are in the forecast although not as much as in the Columbias to the west. Some new windslab formation is possible, especially if the actual amount of snow is more than what the forecast calls for.