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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 15th, 2018–Dec 16th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

Stay tuned to changing snow beneath you feet. Dangerous slabs have developed above treeline and should be avoided.

Weather Forecast

Cloudy with sunny periods and trace amounts of precipitation as we get a day of high pressure between storms. Alpine temperatures of -10.0, ridge winds SW 45km/hr, freezing level at 700m. The next winter storm moves in from the west tomorrow, with 6cm of snow forecast for Sunday, 18cm for Monday, 13cm for Tuesday and 10cm for Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

Extreme S winds are redistributing storm snow in the alpine and encouraging slab development. The December 9th persistent weak layer consisting of surface hoar, sun crust and facets is buried 100cm. The November 21st persistent weak layer is down 120-160cm. Height of snow at treeline is approx 2m, and 1m at Rogers Pass.

Avalanche Summary

Explosive avalanche control produced 4 size 2.5-3.0 storm slab avalanches in the west end of Glacier National Park and 4 size 2-2.5 in the East end. In Connaught Creek, "Frequent Flyer" slide path ran naturally the night of December 13, terminating 100m past the creek. Yesterday a group observed a cornice collapse on the N side of Mt Cheops.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

The recent storm snow was walloped by extreme southerly winds overnight. Wind loaded pockets will be present on lee and cross loaded features, especially on north aspects. The newly distributed snow load sits atop existing storm instabilities.
If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.

Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

The December 9 weak layer is down +100cm. This layer consists of surface hoar, facets and sun crust, depending on the aspect. Natural and human triggered avalanches are still occurring on this layer.
Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3