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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 22nd, 2014–Apr 23rd, 2014
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Avalanche danger can rise quickly with afternoon warming and solar radiation. Be aware of changing conditions and overhead hazards.For more insight into spring danger ratings, check out this blog post.

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Unsettled conditions are expected for Wednesday before an organized system reaches the south coast on Thursday morning.  This system should result in light precipitation until Friday morning.  Friday is expected to be unsettled.Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud, scattered precipitation 1-3mm, freezing level am: 800m pm: 1500m, ridgetop wind: light variableThursday: Precipitation 4-8mm, freezing level am: 1000m pm: 1600m, ridgetop wind: light-moderate SWFriday: Cloudy with sunny breaks, scattered precipitation 0-2mm, freezing level am: 1100m pm: 1500m, ridgetop wind: light variable

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported. We are no longer receiving professional field reports from this region so public observations are really appreciated. If you are out in the mountains, please send your observations to [email protected].

Snowpack Summary

A highly variable spring snowpack exists across the region and conditions can change rapidly throughout the day. At lower elevations below-treeline, the snowpack is isothermal and melting rapidly. At mid elevations, between roughly 1500 and 2000m (and higher on sunny slopes), the snowpack is undergoing daily melt-freeze cycles. In the mornings, a refrozen surface generally means good stability. In the afternoon when the surface melts, the stability can deteriorate quickly, especially on sunny slopes. The recent storm has produced dry snow in the alpine resulting in the formation of storm slabs and wind slabs which sit on an old crust. The stability of these slabs has generally been improving but on the first really sunny day, stability is expected to deteriorate rapidly and natural avalanche activity is likely, especially on sunny slopes. Large cornices remain a concern and are expected to become reactive during periods of solar warming. The early-Feb facet/crust layer (down ~2m) and a weak basal layer are both dormant but remain a concern during periods of intense warming, especially in thinner snowpack areas, when large spring avalanches may step down to these layers.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs from the weekend storm may still be sensitive to human-triggering.  These formed in leeward alpine features from strong S-SW winds.
Use caution in lee areas in the alpine. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Wet

Loose wet activity can be expected from steep features during periods of solar warming or rain.  Isolated wet slabs may be possible under the same conditions where the recent storm snow is poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Cornices

Large cornices may become reactive during periods of sun and warming.  Cornice falls have the potential to trigger deep instabilities which could result in large, destructive avalanches.
Cornices become weak with daytime heating, so travel early on exposed slopes.>Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4