Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Thursday is still a good time for conservative terrain choices.
Avoid exposure to the runouts of avalanche paths that have not previously avalanched.
Weather Forecast
A warm, wet storm will move through tonight, bringing moderate snowfall amounts.
Tonight: Flurries, 8cm, Alp low -2*C, mod/strong SW winds
Thurs: Cloudy with flurries, Alp high -2*C, fzl rising to 1600m, light/mod W winds
Fri: Mainly cloudy, Alp high -1*C, fzl 1200m, light SW winds
Snowpack Summary
New storm slabs have formed in the ~30 cm of storm snow, with warm temps and mod/strong SW winds. These have buried a Jan 11 surface hoar layer observed up to 4-6 mm. Below this a mix of low density snow/faceted crystals.
The Dec 1 crust (now buried up to 2m deep) remains dormant, despite having weak, sugary, faceted snow above and below it.
Avalanche Summary
No new natural avalanche activity observed on Wednesday.
On Tuesday, we had natural and artillery controlled avalanches up to size 3.5, reaching end of runouts with lrg dust components. These avalanches were mostly failing in the storm snow. A few deeper slabs were observed east of Rogers pass at TL ele, likely failing on the Jan 1 FC interface.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Warm snowfall and winds have created storm slabs at all elevations. Slabs will remain reactive until temperatures drop and new snow settles.
- The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.
- Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created storm slabs.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5