Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather systems in the south coast are fast moving are fast moving and weather models are changing. A third significant storm is now forecast to impact the region for Sunday night into Monday and the intensity of Saturday night's storm has eased.  

Friday night: Snow eases but a mix of snow flurries and rain with up to 20cm new snow (20mm rain) overnight with freezing levels rising to 2200 m before dropping in the early morning to 1100m. Winds ease to light Southwest with strong gusts. Low alpine temperature -1C.  

Saturday: Initially mostly cloudy, then snow (& rain) with accumulations of 20-30cm snow (20-30mm rain), moderate to strong south ridgetop winds, alpine alpine high +3C, freezing level initially 1200m but rising to 2000m.

Sunday: Cloudy with rain and scattered flurries (above 1700m), accumulation up to 20mm (20cm), light west winds gusting strong at ridgetop, alpine low 0C & alpine high +6C, freezing level dropping to 1700m.

Monday: Rain heavy at times with up to 80mm forecast, light southwest winds gusting extreme at ridgetop, alpine low -2C & alpine high 6C, freezing level 2500m.

Wet and stormy weather continues to bring a mix of rain and snow to the North Shore mountains. Ski hills report numerous intentionally triggered small avalanches, predominately on westerly and northwesterly slopes with crowns 20-25cm deep. Another report from the backcountry adjacent to Mt Seymour tells of a couple small wind slabs in steep terrain adjacent to gulley features. Avalanches appear to be releasing on storm shears down 20-35cm. They also report signs of instability such as cracking and being able to trigger small "indicator-slopes" or convex min-features in exposed treeline. 

Avalanche activity is expected to peak overnight on Friday with high freezing levels and will taper with forecast colder temperatures and a break in the storms for Saturday.  

Have you been out and about in the mountains? If so please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN). It doesn't have to be technical - photos are especially helpful! Thank you so much for all the great MINs submitted so far!

Above the freezing line (1000-1400m), storm after storm continues to deliver heavy amounts of snow. Friday's storm had already delivered 50cm in some higher elevation areas at the time of publishing. Ski hills reported 25-40cm in the past 24 hours with more another 10-20cm forecast to fall Friday night.  

Below this fluctuating freezing line there's likely not much snow left after heavy rains. Avalanche hazard will be elevated anywhere snow is falling and accumulating on yesterday's snow, especially if total new snow is deeper than about 30cm (or reaching from your fingers to your elbow when you poke around).  

Hazard will increase with elevation, where up to 70cm of recent snow was forecast to fall in the past 24 hours. We expect cornices will have grown fat with the recent heavy snows and strong to extreme winds.

We have very little data and a lot of uncertainty around alpine conditions in the region. If you go out in the mountains, please let us know what you see via the Mountain Information Network (MIN). 

• Good day to make conservative terrain choices.
• Watch for rapidly changing conditions during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
• Remember that the snowpack will be significantly different at higher elevations than lower down.
• The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
• Cornices often break further back than expected; give them a wide berth when traveling on ridgetops.