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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 18th, 2018–Jan 19th, 2018
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

Increasing avalanche danger today with continued loading from storm snow and wind loading.

Weather Forecast

A Pacific storm is traveling through the province today. The forecast calls for flurries with snowfall around 12cm.  Ridge winds will be in the moderate to strong SW. Freezing level up to 1600m. Continued precipitation with another 10cm by Saturday evening.

Snowpack Summary

Another 10cm storm snow overnight brings us to ~20cm in the last 24hrs. Warm temps and mod-strong S-SW winds will contribute to forming touchy storm slabs over the Jan 16 interface of surface hoar. Added load to the persistent weak layers Jan 4th, Dec 15 surface hoar may reawaken them. Both layers are producing sudden planar results in field tests.

Avalanche Summary

Skier remote from 20m size 1 slide reported at Balu Pass along with other size 1 skier triggered slides. These avalanches were limited to yesterday's storm snow. A couple slides recorded on the highway corridor to size 2.5.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Yesterday's field info found remote triggering the surface slab in some locations and no slab in others. Warming temps, more new snow and mod S-SW winds will increase the density  of the slab and sensitivity of the layer to human triggering.
Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

The Jan 4 and Dec 15 surface hoar layers are down ~70cm and ~100cm respectively. These layers are widespread at treeline. 20cm storm snow in the last 24hrs will add load to the slab over these weak layers.
If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger persistent slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3