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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 4th, 2018–Feb 5th, 2018
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

Allow the snowpack time to adjust to the recent snow load. Avoid overhead hazard or spending anytime in runout zones as large avalanches have been running into valley bottoms.

Weather Forecast

Winter is great, especially when it snows a lot! Today we can expect to see another 5-10cm of it, giving us poor visibility in the alpine. Temps will range from -5 to -10 with 20km/hr ridgetop winds from the southwest. The next weather system will arrive Tuesday evening and continue into Thursday with forecasted snowfall amounts over 50cm.

Snowpack Summary

25cm in 24hrs brings the weekly snowfall total to ~150cm creating a healthy sized storm slab. Previous moderate to strong south winds have created pockets of windslab in the alpine. A meter and a half of settling snow sits over the Jan 16th surface hoar layer, which is the uppermost PWL and is still distinct and easy to pick out on pit walls.

Avalanche Summary

Several avalanches reported yesterday from backcountry users, some of which buried regular skin track routes. Heavy snowfall and winds produced natural avalanches to size 3.0. Artillery avalanche control produced numerous avalanches, size 2.0-3.5, with several avalanches dusting the highway.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Consistent snowfall has created a storm slab. Previous strong South winds have redistributed the new snow into a windslab in the Alpine and at Treeline. If triggered, the slab could step down to deeper persistent weak layers.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Natural avalanche activity on the persistent weak layers has tapered off recently. The Jan 16th, 4th and Dec 15th surface hoar layers are buried deep, but avalanches in the storm snow can step down and trigger these weak interfaces.
Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger the deep persistent slab.Minimize overhead exposure; avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4