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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 25th, 2012–Dec 26th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Do not let the low ratings at treeline fool you - pockets of weak snow over terrain traps can be just as problematic as a higher danger rating.  Watch for cornices, tree wells, and if the sun comes out, watch for solar radiation warming the snow.

Weather Forecast

A week upper ridge of high pressure will bring dry conditions on this Christmas day, with light winds, and mostly cloudy skies.  A weak Pacific front will move in on Boxing day, bringing light precipitation, cloudy skies, and less than 5 cm of snowfall.  Sunnier skies are expected on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack is generally strong and well settled, except for isolated pockets of wind slab in the alpine and treeline.  While these weaknesses are stubborn to release in tests, a large trigger such as a cornice drop has the potential to trigger these slabs.  Weaknesses deeper in the snowpack are largely dormant right now. 

Avalanche Summary

One new avalanche size 1.5 avalanche was noted in the highway corridor yesterday.  A size 2.0 low elevation glide crack release on the south side Mt Cheops two days ago.  Cornices are getting very large, and could provide the large trigger needed to release avalanches.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.