Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Highlights

Heavy snowfall combined with wind has created dangerous avalanche conditions and the danger is HIGH today. Human-triggered avalanches are very likely and natural avalanches are possible. In addition to avalanches involving new and wind drifted snow, deep and dangerous avalanches involving buried persistent weak layers may be possible. Backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding skills and know how to stay off of and out from under steep avalanche prine slopes. Avoid all avalanche terrain today.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2

    Human triggered avalanches involving the new snow will be likely on steep slopes on all aspects and elevations today. These may come in the form of cohesive soft slabs or loose snow sluffs. On steep slopes facing NW-N-E-SE, the additional snow load may be enough to trigger an avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer deeper in the snowpack. Bottom line - stay off of, and out from under all avalanche terrain today.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2

    Blowing and drifting snow will add to the instability today. Changing wind directions throughout the duration of this long running system have drifted snow on all aspects above treeline. On slopes facing NW-N-E-SE deep drifts threaten to reawaken buried persistent weak layers causing a much deeper avalanche. Bottom line travel advice remains the same - avoid avalanche terrain.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    3

    I'm uncertain if this will be enough of a load to awaken buried persistent weak layers of sugary faceted snow but I've seen it happen after big dumps in March time and time again. For now I'm going to assume them guilty until proven otherwise, and that deep and dangerous avalanches are likely on steep slopes facing NW-N-E-SE.

Special Announcement

The Geyser Pass Roadwill be covered in deep and drifted snow. High clearance 4x4 required and it's going to be sporty!

The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) has no plans to groom.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 19" 72 Hour Snow 27" Base Depth in Gold Basin 72" Wind NW 10-15 G22 Temp 17F

If I didn't know better I'd think we were in Denver! The much-hyped storm system that remains poised to wallop the Front Range just gave us the biggest dump of the season with nearly two feet of snow since early yesterday morning and it doesn't appear to be over yet! The system began affecting our area on Thursday with 7" of new snow accompanied by strong SW winds on Friday. After a brief lull, snowfall picked up again Friday night and hasn't stopped since. Winds yesterday were remarkably calm as they shifted to westerly. Overnight they shifted to the NW and are on the increase. Today look for continued snow with another 4"-6" possible. Blustery NW winds will blow in the 20-30 mph range with gusts into the 40's. A chance for showers will linger this evening with mostly cloudy skies and decreasing but continued blustery NW winds. We'll see partly sunny skies on Monday before the next system arrives on Tuesday.

NWS Weather Forecast.

Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')

Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')

Snowpack Discussion

Expect to find deep and drifted snow and dangerous avalanche conditions today. Human-triggered avalanches within the new snow will be likely on steep slopes on all aspects. Human triggered avalanches on steep, wind drifted slopes will be very likely and this may be a significant enough load to reignite our persistent weak layer concerns. Back-country travelers need to have excellent route finding skills and know how to stay off of and out from under all avalanche terrain.

Additional Info

Here is a weather summary of the last two weeks compiled by Chris Benson.

General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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