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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 8th, 2012–Feb 9th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Expect increased cloud on Thursday with trace amounts of snowfall. Very light snowfall should occur sporadically throughout friday and Saturday morning with possible clearing by Saturday afternoon. Winds are expected to be light and northwesterly until Saturday. Daytime freezing levels are forecast to remain at about 1300m (dropping to surface overnight) throughout the forecast period.

Avalanche Summary

Windslab avalanches to size 1 were observed in the region on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

Cooling has helped the snowpack to gain considerable strength since the warming on the weekend and a crusts have now developed on slopes that saw direct sun. On shaded aspects the upper snowpack is also well settled. The exception to this may be recently developed windslabs due to redistribution of surface snow on Monday and Tuesday. Below this sits a fairly well bonded mid-pack and riders are feeling increasingly confident in steeper terrain, particularly in areas with a deeper snowpack. In the south of the region, it is thought that the January 13th surface hoar (buried about 40cm down) may still be reactive. There are also basal facets at the ground which were reactive with the warming last weekend, especially in thin snowpack parts of the region. Snowpack depths at 2000m sit near 2m deep. If you're traveling around the mountains, it's a good time to take notice of what layers are developing (surface hoar/ crusts/surface hoar on crusts) that may become an issue once buried.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.