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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 25th, 2014–Jan 26th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells.

'Low Hazard' does not mean 'No Hazard' and isolated avalanches may still be possible. Check out this blog post for further discussion.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

On Sunday morning, the warm ridge of high pressure that has dominated the weather in the interior regions over the last few days will be replaced by an Arctic ridge of high pressure. This will result in colder temperatures but the generally dry conditions will remain. Some disturbance is expected as the pattern changes which will result in increased cloud cover and light flurries for Sunday.Sunday: Mostly cloudy, light flurries 2-3cm, temperature inversion breaking down and treeline temperatures dropping to around -5C, light NE winds at treelineMonday: A mix of sun and cloud, dry conditions, treeline temperatures around -6C, light NE-NW winds at treelineTuesday: Mostly sunny, dry conditions, treeline temperatures around -8C, light SW winds at treeline

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, several natural loose-wet avalanches up to size 2 were reported in the region. This were limited to steep, south facing terrain and were caused by solar radiation and warming temperatures. Also reported were ski cuts to size 1 on similar slopes.

Snowpack Summary

The recent dry, warm weather has generally consolidated the upper snowpack. As temperatures now begin to cool, stability in the upper snowpack should increase further. Keep in mind that 'Low Hazard' does not mean 'No Hazard' and that residual risk of avalanches still exists. Old, stubborn wind slabs may still exist in isolated areas. A basal facet/crust combo (weak sugary snow above and below a crust) near the ground is still a concern in some areas. The depth of this layer makes triggering an avalanche on it unlikely (maybe a heavy load on a thin spot in steep terrain, rapid temperature change, or cornice fall), but the consequences would be large and very destructive.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.