Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Generally safe avalanche conditions exist.  On your travels today keep an eye out for isolated pockets of wind drifted snow. These areas will have a dense snow surface and feel hollow under foot. Take a moment to consider what the consequences would be if you triggered one of these small pockets. Persistent weak layers under hard slabs on North through East aspects above treeline continue to linger and have become difficult to trigger. Do some investigating to find out if this structure exists before committing to a slope. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1

    Triggering an avalanche on weak faceted layers beneath stiff slabs has become very difficult as we are well removed from our last significant loading event.   Not all slopes on North through East aspects have this poor snowpack structure, so take the time to assess if the slope you plan to ski or ride has this strong over weak structure.   These hard slabs will easily support the weight of a skier or rider until you find that "sweet spot".  Typically near the margins of the slab and near rock outcrops where the slab is thinner. Although these avalanches would likely be small as these slabs are not well connected across slopes, the consequences could still be quite high with lots of natural obstacles on the ground.

    The strong over weak snowpack structure you can find on North through East aspects above treeline.

Avalanche Discussion

Moderate East/Northeast winds over the last several days have easily transported the 2-4" of snow from Dec 2.  Above treeline you may find isolated pockets of wind slab that rest above weak faceted snow.   Look for wind drifted pillows and stiffening of the snow surface that may feel hollow or sound drummy.  Obvious red flags such as collapses and shooting cracks are indications you've found unstable snow. Think about what the consequences of releasing one of these pockets would be before committing to a slope.  

 We've become a facet factory over the last week with big temperature swings from warm sunny days to cold clear nights. It's looking like this trend will continue over the next week as we wait for the next storm.  We are finding more and more slopes near and below treeline that have become cohesion-less faceted snow from top to bottom in the snowpack.  In steeper terrain, it's easy to get this snow to entrain itself creating small Loose Dry snow avalanches. Although typically not a big problem, if in steep complex terrain this snow can knock you off your feet taking you where you may not want to go.

It's been well over a week since we had natural or skier triggered persistent slab avalanches on North through East aspects above treeline. As we push further and further since the last significant loading event (Nov 24) it's become increasingly difficult to trigger an avalanche on these persistent weak layers.  Hard slabs formed from the strong wind event on 11/8 and now have upwards of a foot of snow on top. With moderate Northeast winds over the last two days, the snow surface may be stiffening into a more cohesive slab on the surface.  Old snow from October that is weak and faceted exists underneath these hard slabs.  This snowpack structure is variable in this terrain and impossible to tell if it exists without taking the time to dig down into the snow.

Lower angled terrain less than 35 degrees on wind-sheltered slopes near treeline offer some good skiing and riding right now. It's just the beginning of December with an overall shallow snowpack.  Natural obstacles such as rocks and downed timber continue to be hazards. 

Regions covered