Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

If you take the time to make a detailed plan this morning and further pay close attention to your terrain selection. Then you will be setting yourself up well, to get out and enjoy some pow today. The most dangerous areas are at near and above treeline elevation wind-loaded slopes. Simple avoidance and move on is the answer there. Consider looking at lower elevations to enjoy that snow today. For those lower elevation slopes, here are some key terrain characteristics to look for. Slope angles that are below about 35 degrees, lack trigger points and convex rolls, and are further not connected to steeper slopes above. If you want an easier way to get out and enjoy the snow, then limit those slope angles to below 30 degrees, and are also not connected to steeper slopes above. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Since last Friday, Nearly a hundred persistent slab avalanches up to several feet thick and hundreds of feet wide, have been triggered or run naturally. These avalanches have released on persistent weak layers in the middle and at the bottom of the snowpack. Crown heights have averaged 2 to 4 feet tall. The eastern half of the compass has seen the most avalanche activity, with winds further loading those slopes. Natural avalanches are possible on those wind-loaded slopes, while human triggering remains likely around much of the compass. 

    Recent natural persistent slab on Schuylkill Ridge. Note the wide propagation and long running debris.

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Westerly winds at 12,000ft are averaging in the 20mph range and gusting into the 30's. The most likely areas to encounter this avalanche problem will be at above treeline elevations, while some near treeline elevations may also require managing this avalanche problem. These slabs are expected to average about 1 to 1.5 feet thick. A triggered wind slab avalanche also has the chance to step down into the deeper persistent slab avalanche problem and lead to a very large avalanche. With continued wind-loading today, natural avalanches are also possible on these same aspects.

Avalanche Discussion

Recent snow accumulations are slowly adding up since about Tuesday. This will create some fresh riding conditions, but we are also building up to our next significant avalanche cycle. For the NW Mountains, those total new snow accumulations are now at about 7 to 15" of snow. While the SE Mountains are also doing well with totals closer to the 5 to 8" range since Tuesday. While we are not in a particularly windy period for our area, alpine weather stations on Cinnamon Mountains and Scarps Ridge are recording westerly winds averaging in the 20's and gusting into the 30's. The most dangerous areas today are where those winds are further loading all that snow available for transport. In those areas, natural avalanches are possible today. 

Below treeline elevations were dropped to MODERATE today. Recent observations are pointing to a decreased sensitivity for triggering a slab avalanche on slopes that haven't seen additional wind-loading. While sensitivity to triggering has decreased, a slab avalanche is still possible to trigger, would be large in size, and may propagate widely through the terrain. The key to limiting your exposure to triggering an avalanche is through terrain selection and the specific characteristics of that slope. 

Starting Friday, the avalanche danger will be increasing into the weekend. Some areas will be flirting with HIGH avalanche danger tomorrow. On Saturday a more significant natural avalanche cycle is expected and an avalanche warning will likely be in place. This video highlights the natural avalanche cycle from last weekend and begins to set the stage for what we may have in store for this coming weekend. 

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