Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

A prolonged storm cycle will create very dangerous avalanche conditions in the Hurricane Ridge area Saturday.  Natural and human triggered slab avalanches are very likely at mid and upper elevations.  Large loose wet avalanches are possible at mid-elevations that see new snow Friday night turn to rain on Saturday.  

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Slab avalanches are very likely near and above treeline as a potent storm pounds the Olympics.  Avalanches releasing within the new storm snow will be larger and more consequential on wind loaded slopes with deeper drifts.  In isolated areas, avalanches could break down to weak snow that's now likely 2 or more feet below the snow surface near and above treeline.  These avalanches may break widely around terrain features and would be deadly.  Avoid lingering at the bottom of large avalanche paths. 

    Also avoid freshly formed cornices along ridgelines, making sure to give them a wide berth.  They are likely to break off with your without your help and may trigger avalanches on the slopes below. 

    (12/31/2020) Human triggered large slab avalanche on a NE asp, 5500'. May have released on 3-4 mm surface hoar, est 1.5' below the snow surface. No one was caught or carried. Photo: Russ Hamlet.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Loose wet avalanches will be most dangerous in the elevation bands that see fresh snow Friday night followed by rain and warming Saturday. It's at mid-elevations where you're most likely to entrain enough new snow for a loose wet avalanche to become large.  If you find yourself sinking in wet snow more than ankle-deep or see natural warning signs like pinwheels or rollerballs releasing from steep slopes, move to lower angle terrain.  Even small loose wet avalanches can knock you off your feet and can cause injury in the wrong piece of terrain. 

    (1/1/2021) Natural loose wet avalanche at a different National Park across the Sound. Glacier Hill on the Paradise Rd. Mt Rainier National Park. W, 4100'. Photo: NPS Rangers

Avalanche Discussion

It's been an active few days at "The Ridge" with 2" inches of water over the last 3 days, plenty of wind, and unfortunately bouts of rain.  The active weather pattern will continue through Saturday night. 

We've seen a few different avalanche cycles involving storm slabs 12" or less and small loose wet avalanches below 5000'.  There was one large (D2) human triggered avalanche on Thursday (see photo above). Luckily no one was caught in the slide.  Slab avalanches may have failed on weak snow grains (3-4 mm surface hoar) now buried 2 or more feet below the snow surface.  We have high uncertainty regarding how widespread this layer is and where it still remains relevant in the terrain.  Below this layer the mid and lower snowpack is strong with a series of crusts from earlier in the winter.  

Happy New Year from the Northwest Avalanche Center!  We hope you have a safe and healthy start to 2021. 

2020-21 Forecast Schedule: Avalanche danger ratings will be issued for the Olympics every Friday through Sunday and during mid-week holidays. During the week when the Hurricane Ridge road is closed, forecast information will be updated daily to include expected conditions and relevant travel advice under the No Rating label.   

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources.  Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.

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