Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Strong westerly winds over the last two days have built stiffening wind slabs near and above treeline on the leeward side of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain. Continued loading of slopes at higher elevations will stress faceted persistent weak layers deeper down in the snowpack.  A smaller wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. Give loaded slopes wide berths as careful snowpack evaluation and cautious route-finding are essential today.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Moderate to strong westerly winds over the last two days have easily been transporting the 2 feet of snow that have fallen over the last week. Stiffening wind slabs have mainly formed on north through east aspects on the leeward sides of ridgelines, but be heads up for cross-loaded slopes and terrain features. These slabs may feel hollow and drummy underfoot. Pay attention to changes in the snow surface like stiffening of the snow and obvious wind drifted pillows.  Clues like shooting cracks off of your boards are another indication that these slabs have gained cohesiveness and may be able to propagate wider than expected.  A smaller wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weaker layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

     

    Stiffening wind slabs on the leeward sides of ridgelines were propagating easily from ski tips yesterday.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Over the last week, close to 2 feet of snow have fallen in the mountains and winds have picked up continuing to load slopes and building cohesive slabs.  Faceted weak layers continue to linger deeper down in the snowpack as they continue to adjust to this added load.  Faceted crusts and depth hoar closer to the ground have been slow to heal and strengthen in shallow snowpacks.  Deeper snowpacks (2 + meters) can be found above treeline where faceted weak layers will be more difficult to trigger unless you hit a "sweet spot" where the slab is thinner. 

    Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses may not be present in travels and lure you into steeper terrain.  Using a probe pole to feel for strong over weak layering or taking the time to dig down into the snowpack is a great way to assess if this poor snowpack structure exists.    Any persistent slab avalanche would be large and dangerous potentially taking with it most of the season's snowpack.  Giving avalanche paths wide berths and avoiding be on or connected to slopes over 35 degrees is a great way to stay safe. 

    A shallow snowpack like this from a NE aspect near treeline in Long Canyon continue to show reactive weak layers able to propagate in extended column tests.

Avalanche Discussion

Over the last two days we've had avalanche activity pick up as westerly winds transported snow into stiffening wind slabs and loading slopes past its tipping point. Not surprisingly, natural avalanches were mostly confined to North and East aspects near and above treeline where we've seen the greatest amount of loading. Most of these avalanches were just the storm snow but still large enough to sweep you down the slope and potentially bury or injure a person.  We did observe a larger persistent slab avalanche failing on deeper weak layers. With a couple of inches of snow early this morning and moderate winds today slopes will continue to see loading. 

For the first time all year, we haven't seen widespread large persistent slab avalanches after a significant storm and loading event. Are we finally turning the corner, especially in deeper snowpacks or is it that we just need a little bit more of a load and cohesive slabs to get us to the breaking point? Faceted weak layers and depth hoar continue to be present and reactive with varying degrees of force in snowpits. It's not a snowpack that I fully trust, especially in steeper terrain near and above treeline where the consequences will be so high if you were to trigger a deeper persistent slab avalanche.    

With warming temperatures and the intense sun this time of year, we could see natural loose snow avalanches on steep solar aspects. Clues like rollerballs and pinwheels are indications of the upper parts of the snow surface getting wet. These loose wet snow avalanches may be big enough to push you around or potentially bury you in a terrain trap.  These smaller slides can also step down into deeper layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.  

Below treeline, settling stiffening slabs rest on top of a shallow weak faceted snowpack.  We haven't been seeing avalanche activity at these elevations with this latest round of snow.  It's still hard to put trust in this snowpack structure at these elevations.  Open steep slopes will be the most suspect, but even a smaller persistent slab avalanche could have catastrophic consequences if it buries you in a terrain trap or sweeps you over a cliff.

Don't let your guard down, we just had an active week of snowfall with 2 to 3 feet of snow. The blower powder we were enjoying earlier in the storm has felt the impacts of the post-storm winds that have increased sensitivity to triggering avalanches. Wind-sheltered slopes less than 35 degrees offer safer skiing and riding options with better overall riding conditions.

 

Regions covered