Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Strong winds and heavy snow fall will create dangerous avalanche conditions today. Heavy dense snow will be forming slabs over a weak shallow snowpack near and above treeline on northerly and east facing slopes.   Human triggered avalanches are likely and natural avalanches are possible.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper than 30 degrees giving avalanche path runouts large berths.  Cracking and loud audible collapses are indications you've found this unstable snowpack structure of strong over weak. Avalanches could break on or near the ground and may be large enough to injure or bury you. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Strong winds and heavy snow will create 1 to 3-foot slabs that will overload  weak faceted snow on the ground from previous storms.  Upwards of a foot of faceted sugary snow on the ground is mainly confined to northerly and east aspects near and above treeline. Human triggered persistent slab avalanches are likely and natural avalanches are possible.   Shooting cracks and loud audible collapses are indications you've found this unstable snowpack structure of strong over weak.  Remotely triggering avalanches from below or adjacent slopes is a real possibility.  Avoid being on or below slopes steeper than 30 degrees today, giving avalanche path runouts wide berths.  Avalanches may break on or near the ground and could be large enough to injure or bury you. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    New snow and strong  w/sw winds throughout the day will continue to build storm slabs at all elevations.  If the forecast verifies  1 to 2 feet could fall by this evening. Avoid steep slopes where you find more than 10" of  new snow.  The leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded gullies could have significantly more snow drifted in.  A smaller storm slab avalanche could knock you off your feet or push you into a terrain trap.  

Avalanche Discussion

It's been a slow start to the season for us here in northern New Mexico, but that will change quickly starting today as a significant storm could drop 2 feet of snow with strong winds. Only a couple of inches has fallen as of 5 am, but that number should quickly climb as snowfall rates could reach 2" an hour with intense periods of snowfall expected throughout the day.   Strong SW winds will be in the 30 to 40 mph range with gusts in the 80's.  Anticipate changing and rising avalanche hazards throughout the day, especially if we have prolonged periods of intense snowfall or the system over produces.  

With the mountains getting a fresh coat of white, it will be hard to decipher where new snow is falling on the old faceted snow from prior storms. The snowpack before this storm was highly variable in depth and distribution across slopes.  It's safe to assume any north or east facing slope near and above treeline harbors weak faceted snow beneath newly formed slabs and should be treated as suspect until proven otherwise. Taking the time to dig several quick pits either with your hands or shovel is a great way to better understand the characteristics of the snowpack.  Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious routefinding and conservative decision-making are essential today.   

Below treeline, the snowpack on northerly and shady facing slopes is much shallower, with lots of natural obstacles poking up through.  As we start to build up snow and these obstacles like trees and rocks get buried, below treeline terrain will become more of a concern.   

We've had to wait a while, and it's easy to get excited with this new snow.  Don't get lured into pushing into steep terrain right off the bat as we go from 0 to 100 real quickly. A parade of storms are on tap through the end of 2021, making it an active holiday week.  Wind sheltered lower angle terrain will provide the best and safest options for making turns. Stay safe and happy holidays!  

 

Regions covered