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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 6th, 2015–Feb 7th, 2015

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Little Yoho.

Play it conservative out there and avoid all ice climbing routes with any avalanche terrain. The high freezing levels and poor visibility suggests wait for the storm to cease, temperature to cool so that the new snow has time to settle and bond. PJ

Weather Forecast

A warm Pacific Air mass feeding moisture from the south Pacific will clash with cold air from the Northwesterly flow of the Jet Stream until Saturday.  Winds will persist strong from the SW until Saturday evening and temperatures will cool down by the end of the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

45-70cm of recent storm snow sits on a crust from Jan 30 which exists up to 2300m on all aspects (higher on solar aspects).This crust interface will be a layer of failure with the new load of up to 30 cms in the last 24 hours. This large stress to the snowpack may cause the Nov 6th facets problem to re-emerge in shallow snowpack areas.

Avalanche Summary

One natural size 2.5 avalanche nearly struck snow-shoers today in Lake O'Hara in the Schaeffer Bowl area. Several large avalanches up to size 3 were observed in Kootenay Park. Ski areas in the Rockies were reporting numerous natural and explosive controlled Storm Slabs up to size 2.5 today some failing on the November 6th facets.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.