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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 2nd, 2015–Jan 3rd, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Little Yoho.

Good skiing can be found at above treeline.  Be mindful of Dec 18 surface hoar layer down 25-40 cm.  It is widespread in this region at and below treeline and will become a greater issue with more load.

Weather Forecast

10-12 cm new over the day.  The forecast is calling for cooler temperatures for tomorrow (-14C), light wind, and continued light flurries.  We can expect another 10 cm through the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

The main issue currently is the Dec.18 layer which is down 25-40 cm and sits on a crust/surface hoar combination at elevations below 2100 meters and on a facet/surface hoar combination at higher elevations. The surface hoar appears to be more prevalent below 2100 meters. Easy to mod shears found on this interface. Wind effect found in the alpine.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been observed or reported. A large settlement was observed on the Dec 18 surface hoar down 30 cm by a group en route to Isolated Col (on Thursday) and by groups in the Emerald slide path (on Friday).  Anything starting to slab up with wind effect seemed to produce the settlements.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.