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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 16th, 2019–Apr 17th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Be cautious of touchy deposits of fresh snow around ridges and in lee terrain. As freezing levels rise or the snowpack turns moist, the likelihood of triggering loose wet avalanches will increase, especially in areas with fresh snow.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with isolated flurries, trace to 5 cm accumulation / southwest wind, 30-45 km/h / alpine low -6 C / freezing level 1300 m

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries, up to 5 cm snow / southwest wind, 35-50 km/h / alpine high +1 C / freezing level 1900 m

THURSDAY: Periods of wet snow, 10-20 cm rain or snow / southwest wind, 35 km/h / alpine high +1 C / freezing level 1900 m

FRIDAY: Sun, cloud, and isolated flurries, trace to 10 cm / west wind 15-40 km/h / alpine hight -1 C / freezing level 1600 m

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle to size 2.5 was reported on Monday. Avalanches to size 2.5 were observed on all aspects above 2000 m failing on a crust or, in one case, isolated surface hoar, with crown depths of 70 cm. Three remotely triggered avalanches size 1.5-2 avalanches were triggered on east aspects around 2100-2200 m failing on facets, also with crown depths of 70 cm.

On Sunday a small (size 1) natural storm slab was observed on an east aspect at 2600 m.

A week ago Tuesday, a small (size 1) slab avalanche 30 cm deep was remotely triggered by a skier from 80 m away on a northeast aspect at 2250 m. A layer of small surface hoar below the most recent snow may have been the weak layer. This layer is now buried approximately 70 cm deep in the snowpack and may see increases stress as temperatures penetrate the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Sun and rising freezing levels are settling the 15-40 cm recent snow on all slopes to 2000 m and sunny slopes in the alpine. Where dry snow remains, slabs have developed around ridges and lee features. Around 70 cm snowfall through April now overlies a melt-freeze crust and, in select areas, facets or surface hoar. Natural avalanches on Monday failed at this interface.

Below treeline snow is disappearing rapidly.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.