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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 4th, 2014–Mar 5th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

With upwards of 40cm of new snow in the forecast by Friday AM coupled with strong to extreme SW winds over the next 48 hours an increase in Avalanche Danger is certain.  Look for increased natural avalanche activity as a sign of increasing danger.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

Milder temps are bringing with them strong to extreme winds with some variability across the forecast area.  The Aster Lake area has experienced strong winds all day while the Smith-Dorrien area had periods of calm with strong winds at ridgetop in the PM.  10cm of storm snow is forecast for Tuesday night with another 15cm on Wednesday and similar amounts forecast for Thursday.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches observed or reported.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack depths overtop of the Feb 10 layer of SC/FC/SH vary from 35-80cm thick depending upon elevation and terrain exposure to winds. The bond at this interface is moving into the Hard range based on field tests over the past 2 days.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.