Warm temps and strong winds are forecast for Monday. The warm temps may decrease stability on solar aspects as conditions warm up so keep a keen eye on overhead slopes in relation to the sun. Best skiing is on North aspects.
Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Warm temperatures and strong SW winds are forecast for Monday. Freezing levels are forecast to climb up to 2200m (roughly treeline) so we can expectr there to be some decreases in stability later in the day as conditions warm up. Cloudy skies are forecast but if the sun does come out, expect there to be a rapid decrease in stability on solar aspects related to this daytime warming. No new snow is forecast.
Avalanche Summary
One new sz two slide was observed on a N aspect in the Goat range towards the northern end of the forecast region. This slide failed in facets on rocks at the ground but was likely triggerred by a cornice collapse.
Snowpack Summary
Very little change out there of late. Temperature crusts are being found on all aspects up to 2000m and up to ridgelines on solar aspects. The 0210 layer is down 100-150cm throughout the forecast region and despite a decline in recent natural activity on this layer, it is still our main concern in the snowpack. We are not into a cycle of good melts and freezes and a true spring snowpack as of yet. Conditions are still very wintery at this time...
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.