Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Friday

Synopsis: Mostly dry until Friday, when a Pineapple Express is likely to impact this region with warm temperatures and moderate (but prolonged) precipitation amounts.Wednesday and Thursday: Generally dry but flurries possible. Freezing level around 1300 m. Winds southwest, mostly light, increasing to strong on Thursday afternoon.Friday: Moderate snow/rain. Freezing level up to 2000 m. Southwesterly ridgetop winds to 60 km/h.

A large avalanche was remotely triggered from a flat ridge on Tuesday, with a fracture depth of 130 cm. On Monday, numerous natural and human-triggered avalanches were reported up to size 2, mostly running on the February 12th surface hoar.The number, size, and destructive potential of recent avalanche events speak to the touchy nature of the persistent avalanche problem. I would expect human triggering at this persistent interface to be a very real possibility throughout the week.

Moderate to locally heavy snowfall on Sunday adds to ongoing potent storm instabilities which seem to be most reactive as a wind slab in exposed terrain or as loose snow in more sheltered areas. A weak surface hoar layer which was buried on February 12th now exists up to a metre below the surface in many places. The highly variable and destructive nature of this persistent weakness remains a primary concern for professionals in the region. This interface has also shown reactivity on southerly aspects where a sun crust also exists. The mid to lower snowpack are generally strong and well settled. I anticipate significant cornice growth with the current weather pattern, and expect them to be weak and potentially destructive.