The good news? Well, the temps are finally dropping so any new precipitation over the weekend will be snow.
The bad news? There will be an extremely thick, surface crust which will render backcountry travel difficult and grim.
The crummy news? Backcountry travel is already grim with heavy, wet slop dominating surface conditions.
Summary
Confidence
Avalanche Summary
A large natural avalanche cycle was observed on all aspects and elevations lasting from Sunday through Tuesday, with many avalanches running full path and gouging deeply in confined gullies. Recent avalanche control within and adjacent to the park produced numerous large avalanches up to size 3.5, some showing wide propagation.
A remote trigger adjacent to the west end of Glacier NP resulted in a sz 3.5 running from the Alpine to valley bottom.
Snowpack Summary
The recent warm weather and rain has left the upper snowpack wet and weak, making for difficult and hazardous travel at all elevations/aspects.
A sun crust (Jan 3), down 60-80cm, can be found at and below Tree-line on S-SW aspects. Wet surface avalanches have been stepping down to this layer and deeper within confined gullies.
The Dec 1 surface hoar layer, down ~120cm, is decomposing.
Weather Summary
Temps are dropping through Friday and the weekend. Minor amounts of snow(!) may arrive Sat.
Tonight: Clearing, Alp low -1°C, light winds, freezing level (FZL) 1800m.
Fri: Cloudy with isolated flurries, Alp high -1°C, FZL 1800m.
Sat: Cloudy with scattered flurries, 5cm, Alp high -4°C, FZL 1500m.
Sun: Cloud/sun, Alp high -4°C, FZL 1400m.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- A crust on the surface will help bind the snow together, but may make for tough travel conditions.
Problems
Wet Slabs
20+cm of sticky wet snow, warm temperatures, and a final dose of rain high into Alpine elevations have created a heavy, wet slab at all elevations. Natural avalanches have been occurring in this layer and skiing/riding is extremely difficult.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Wet
Loose, wet snow avalanches will still be possible at lower elevations, but should cease once freezing levels return to the valley bottom.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 2nd, 2024 4:00PM
