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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 1st, 2024–Feb 2nd, 2024
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

The good news? Well, the temps are finally dropping so any new precipitation over the weekend will be snow.

The bad news? There will be an extremely thick, surface crust which will render backcountry travel difficult and grim.

The crummy news? Backcountry travel is already grim with heavy, wet slop dominating surface conditions.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

A large natural avalanche cycle was observed on all aspects and elevations lasting from Sunday through Tuesday, with many avalanches running full path and gouging deeply in confined gullies. Recent avalanche control within and adjacent to the park produced numerous large avalanches up to size 3.5, some showing wide propagation.

A remote trigger adjacent to the west end of Glacier NP resulted in a sz 3.5 running from the Alpine to valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

The recent warm weather and rain has left the upper snowpack wet and weak, making for difficult and hazardous travel at all elevations/aspects.

A sun crust (Jan 3), down 60-80cm, can be found at and below Tree-line on S-SW aspects. Wet surface avalanches have been stepping down to this layer and deeper within confined gullies.

The Dec 1 surface hoar layer, down ~120cm, is decomposing.

Weather Summary

Temps are dropping through Friday and the weekend. Minor amounts of snow(!) may arrive Sat.

Tonight: Clearing, Alp low -1°C, light winds, freezing level (FZL) 1800m.

Fri: Cloudy with isolated flurries, Alp high -1°C, FZL 1800m.

Sat: Cloudy with scattered flurries, 5cm, Alp high -4°C, FZL 1500m.

Sun: Cloud/sun, Alp high -4°C, FZL 1400m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • A crust on the surface will help bind the snow together, but may make for tough travel conditions.

Avalanche Problems

Wet Slabs

20+cm of sticky wet snow, warm temperatures, and a final dose of rain high into Alpine elevations have created a heavy, wet slab at all elevations. Natural avalanches have been occurring in this layer and skiing/riding is extremely difficult.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Loose Wet

Loose, wet snow avalanches will still be possible at lower elevations, but should cease once freezing levels return to the valley bottom.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3