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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 18th, 2015–Dec 19th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Windy day out there today. The alpine had strong winds that couldn't decide on a consistent direction. Expect fresh windslabs to be present on the bigger alpine features. Sheltered treeline areas have fantastic skiing right now. 

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries tomorrow. Flurries will bring only trace amounts of new snow. The temps will be similar to today with an alpine high of -10. Strong ridge top winds (30-40km/hr) will continue overnight tonight and into tomorrow. Hopefully dropping to  moderate by early afternoon. The direction will be from the SW. But if today is any indication, be prepared for variable wind direction. Today saw it from all directions due to local alpine terrain.

Avalanche Summary

Lots of sluffing on the steep faces today. The sluffing has created small slabs at the base of cliffs. In a few cases, these slabs did release. The biggest was a sz1, on a steep East aspect at 2200m.

Snowpack Summary

We didn't get the snow that was forecast, but we sure got the wind! Lots of wind transport today at all elevations. Below treeline saw some minor redistribution of the available snow, but not enough to create an avalanche problem. Small test profiles indicated the Dec 4th is down 30cm. The actual interface is still evident as a density change & grain change. But as far as reactivity goes, the Dec 4th seems to be healed in all areas we dug. This doesn't mean the layer is not an issue, but it does suggest it isn't as big a problem anymore. Especially factoring the low density snow above it. Treeline has a very similar character. At upper treeline we did 3 different compression tests with no results on any layer. The Dec 4th interface is visible, but it doesn't seem to pose a threat at the moment. The alpine is a different story. The continuous, strong winds have created new wind slabs on almost all aspects. At the moment these slabs are thin and limited to areas directly below cliffs.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

We have multiple layers of windslabs in the alpine and upper treeline. Below large alpine cliffs is a small, but reactive slab forming from spindrift. The older windslabs are still present on N-SE aspects.
Avoid traveling on ledges and cliffs where small avalanches may have severe consequences.>Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3