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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 11th, 2019–Feb 12th, 2019
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Mt Hood.

Continued heavy snow, wind and warming will tip the balance and lead to surprising and life-threatening avalanches. With very dangerous avalanche conditions, traveling in avalanche terrain is not recommended. Put extra space between where you travel and any terrain where avalanches could start or run to overhead slopes.

Discussion

Snow and Avalanche Discussion

2-3 feet of storm snow has already fallen as of Monday afternoon. An additional 1-2 feet of denser heavily wind affected snow overnight and Tuesday will tip the balance and create very dangerous avalanche conditions.  Safe travel may be found only in non-avalanche terrain and lower-angle slopes well away from where avalanches start, run or stop.

Professions triggered 1-2’ wind slabs with slope cuts on west through southwest slopes in the White River Canyon at 5500 to 6500 ft on Sunday afternoon.

White-out conditions Monday prohibited views of avalanche control results in higher terrain. 

Snowpack Discussion

New Regional Synopsis Coming Soon

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Ridgetop winds have averaged 20-40 mph and gusting to 70 mph. 2-3 feet of storm snow combined with these strong winds are building deep slab layers. Any wind-affected snow is likely to be very sensitive to natural and human triggering. Most wind slabs will be forming over faceted (weak) snow above a firm crust (sliding bed surface), which is a prime recipe for very dangerous slab avalanches. Avoid avalanche terrain and stick to low angle terrain well away from open slopes above.

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Storm Slabs

Continued heavy snowfall at gradually warmer temperatures will form unstable slabs that will produce large natural and human-triggered avalanches. A very weak underlying snow structure exists in most areas, consisting of weak snow that may be poorly bonded to a hard crust, especially on any southerly facing terrain. Winds will keep the storm slab problem confined to sheltered terrain. These avalanches may be life-threatening and run long distances. It will be best to avoid avalanche terrain on Tuesday.

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1