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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 30th, 2018–Jan 31st, 2018
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

A natural avalanche cycle continues this morning with moderate to strong Southerly winds moving storm snow and overloading weak layers. Many avalanches are running to valley bottom.

Weather Forecast

Cloudy with sunny periods, light precipitation, moderate SW winds and alpine high of -9C. A lull in the weather Wednesday then Thursday another storm front is forecast to hit bringing heavy precipitation into the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

60cm of storm snow in the last 4 days, 35cm in the last 24hrs at 1900m, accompanied by moderate to strong S'ly winds. Expect to find wind slab along ridge lines and lee features due to the moderate south winds in the Alpine. The Jan 16 surface hoar is down ~70cm, Jan 4 down ~90cm and Dec 15 down ~1m+ making for a complex sandwich of weak layers.

Avalanche Summary

We are experiencing a widespread natural avalanche cycle with slides to size 3.5. Avalanches have been running to full path to the bottom of runnout. Initially the cycle began with light winds, warmer temps and heavy precipitation. Now the S'ly winds have picked up continuing the overloading of the weak layers in the snowpack.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Heavy snowfall created a reactive storm slab. Wind loading continues to overload this weakness. If triggered, the slab could step down to deeper weak layers. Avalanches are running full path.
Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Persistent weak layers present a lower likelihood / high consequence scenario with the Jan 16th, 4th &Dec 15th surface hoar layers buried deep. These layers have woke up again resulting in large avalanches in the last 24hrs.
If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3.5