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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 23rd, 2011–Dec 24th, 2011
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertainfor the entire period

Weather Forecast

Saturday: 3-5cm of snow - moderate to strong southwest winds - Freezing level at 1200mSunday: 8-12cm of snow arriving late in the day - moderate southwest winds - freezing level at 800mMonday: 8-12cm of snow - light to moderate southwest winds - freezing level at surface

Avalanche Summary

Fresh wind slabs and cornices are sensitive to human-triggers A size 2 windslab was ski cut yesterday on Vantage Peak on the Duffey Lake area (alpine elevation band-northeast aspect)

Snowpack Summary

Dribs and drabs of new snow, in the Coquihalla area, with associated winds are keeping wind slabs fresh and poorly bonded, but also keeping recent surface hoar development and distribution to a minimum. While in the Duffey Lake area, wind-exposed slopes are predominately scoured and pressed, with pockets of hard wind slab. Buried surface hoar and/or facets persists 10 or so centimetres below a weak rain crust on sheltered treeline slopes and below, where recent compression tests on a northerly aspect at 1750m produced easy sudden results down 20cm on surface hoar as large as 15mm. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well-settled and strong, but recent reports suggest basal facets create a deep persistent slab problem that deserves caution in shallow snowpack areas on planar rocky slopes.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs have developed on lee and cross-loaded terrain in the alpine and at treeline. Rider triggered wind slabs are likely.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Storm slabs have now formed at all elevations. They may be developing into a more persistent problem where the mid December buried surface hoar/crust/facet layers exist.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4