Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing of incoming weather is uncertain

A series of frontal systems will continue to affect the region over the next few days. In general, expect 10-20cm of snow each 12 hour period, with strong W-SW winds. Tuesday: 15-25cm of snow. Winds backing off to Mod-Strong from the SW. Freezing level (FL) around 600m. Wednesday: 30-40cm. Strong SW winds. FL rising to 1200m. Thursday: 10-15cm. Strong SW winds. FL around 1000m.

Expect natural avalanche activity throughout the forecast period with forecast snow and wind. Several natural slab and loose snow avalanches up to Size 2.5 were observed at lower elevations around Shames and west of Terrace on Saturday. Recent observations have been limited to below treeline.

Over the past week the northwest has been slammed by snow, strong to extreme winds, and fluctuating freezing levels. The weeks tally is closing in on 200cm near Terrace, with areas to the north seeing a little less (Stewart up to 90cms). Alpine observations have been limited and wind sensors have been disabled by rime, but I suspect new snow has been blown around by strong southwest winds creating wind slabs on lee slopes and scoured windward slopes.In addition to the more obvious direct-action storm instabilities that are expected with the forecast weather, local avalanche professionals have some other concerns: Surface hoar that formed during the winter solstice sits approximately 40-60cm below the surface and may become more reactive with more wind and snow. As well, the crust-facet combo (extends up to alpine elevations in the south and to 1000m in the north) from the early december dry-spell sits about 150cm below the surface and has not gone away. Any avalanches on this layer would be highly destructive and are probably waiting for the right load or trigger.