Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Northwest Coastal.
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
The low pressure system will pass over the North Coast Wednesday. Unsettled conditions are expected for Thursday before a ridge of high pressure moves into the area for Friday.Wednesday: Snowfall 20-30 cm, freezing level around 500m, moderate to strong SW windsThursday: Mostly cloudy, light flurries, freezing level around 500m, light to moderate SW windsFriday: A mix of sun and cloud, mostly dry conditions, freezing levels dropping to valley bottom, light NW winds
Avalanche Summary
No recent natural avalanches have been reported.
Snowpack Summary
Southern Sections: The latest weather system dropped another 30 cm of snow, bringing the total snowfall over the past week to around 150 cm. The recent storm snow is likely "upside down" feeling, with heavier snow on top due to warming at the tail end of the system. Winds were also very strong from the SW most likely creating fresh wind slabs in exposed lee terrain at all elevations. Freezing levels climbed to near 1500 m resulting in moist snow or rain below treeline. Much of the low elevation snowpack has been washed away by recent rain.Northern Sections: Weaknesses may still exist within the recent storm snow which is now totalling over 80cm in the last week. Fresh dense wind slabs are likely in exposed lee terrain and cross-loaded features at all elevations. A recently buried surface hoar layer is now down around 80 cm and is likely primed for rider triggering. A facet/crust layer exists near the base of the snowpack, primarily on higher NW through E facing slopes. Triggering this layer may be unlikely, but if triggered the resulting avalanche would be very large and dangerous.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 5
Persistent Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 6