Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 31st, 2013–Jan 1st, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The low pressure system will pass over the North Coast Wednesday. Unsettled conditions are expected for Thursday before a ridge of high pressure moves into the area for Friday.Wednesday: Snowfall 20-30 cm, freezing level around 500m, moderate to strong SW windsThursday: Mostly cloudy, light flurries, freezing level around 500m, light to moderate SW windsFriday: A mix of sun and cloud, mostly dry conditions, freezing levels dropping to valley bottom, light NW winds

Avalanche Summary

No recent natural avalanches have been reported.

Snowpack Summary

Southern Sections: The latest weather system dropped another 30 cm of snow, bringing the total snowfall over the past week to around 150 cm. The recent storm snow is likely "upside down" feeling, with heavier snow on top due to warming at the tail end of the system. Winds were also very strong from the SW most likely creating fresh wind slabs in exposed lee terrain at all elevations. Freezing levels climbed to near 1500 m resulting in moist snow or rain below treeline. Much of the low elevation snowpack has been washed away by recent rain.Northern Sections: Weaknesses may still exist within the recent storm snow which is now totalling over 80cm in the last week. Fresh dense wind slabs are likely in exposed lee terrain and cross-loaded features at all elevations. A recently buried surface hoar layer is now down around 80 cm and is likely primed for rider triggering. A facet/crust layer exists near the base of the snowpack, primarily on higher NW through E facing slopes. Triggering this layer may be unlikely, but if triggered the resulting avalanche would be very large and dangerous.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs and wind slabs continue to build and may release naturally with more load or from the weight of a rider. Watch for touchy wind slabs on exposed north through southeast facing slopes and cross-loaded features in the alpine and treeline.
Stick to simple terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times.>Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 5

Persistent Slabs

Primarily a concern in Northern sections. A recently buried surface hoar layer, now down 60-80 cm, could be triggered by additional loading from snow or wind or by the weight of a rider. Also, a weak facet/crust combo lurks near the ground.
Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 6