Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 1st, 2023 3:15PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.
JMackenzie,
Avalanche Canada
This is a year to remain disciplined with a very conservative approach to terrain. The current snowpack is very weak with the potential for large destructive avalanches, and this condition is unlikely to change in the short term. Stick to low angle, well-supported terrain and avoid overhead hazard.
Summary
Confidence
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches observed or reported in the last 24 hours. A serious skier-triggered avalanche accident occurred yesterday in Yoho National Park to the West of us (check out the MIN on avalanche.ca). This is notable as they have a similar snowpack condition to our region.
Snowpack Summary
This a hard snowpack description to write. It is hard to convey the seriousness of a snowpack in a short written description. We are essentially sitting on a house of cards known as the Nov 25 depth hoar layer. In a nutshell, the lower third of our snowpack is the worst we've seen in a very long time. It is a 30-40cm thick layer of rotten sugar snow. It's bad, and its everywhere. The upper 2/3 of the snow pack is slightly denser snow made up of several layers. Within this denser snow we have another persistent layer we know locally as the Dec 17th surface hoar. While not as bad as the Nov 25, this layer is also reacting in tests as it's only down 20-30cm. We have noted a fair bit of regional variability in the depths of these layers layers, be sure to dig and locate them in your terrain of choice.
Weather Summary
High pressure moves into the region leading to dry conditions (again!). Alpine temperatures range from -5 to -10C with light winds on Monday. Not much change expected in the weather for the next few days.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
- Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
This layer is easy to trigger from thin, weak shallow areas. Forecasters are easily producing whumpfing in thin snowpack areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wind Slabs
If triggered the wind slab is very likely to steep down to the deeper instability and involve the entire winter's snowpack.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 2nd, 2023 4:00PM
