Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
OH! OH! OH! It is frigid! Short days and brutally cold temps encourage returning to the parking lot with plenty of daylight.
Bring many warm layers and have a conservative mindset if you head into the backcountry. Small mishaps can become serious emergencies in these conditions.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Settlements and whumpfing continue to be reported in previously untracked terrain.
Isolated natural sluffs and small avalanches up to size 1 were observed out of steep solar terrain on Monday.
Adjacent to Rogers Pass in less-traveled terrain, extensive whumpfing and cracking is prevalent at Tree-line elevations.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 10cm now buries the Dec 16 surface hoar (up to 10mm at tree line and below) and a crust on solar aspects.
The snowpack is thin (~110cm at 2000m) and generally facetted. The Dec 5 and Nov 17 surface hoar layers are down ~40cm and ~70cm respectively and have produced sudden results in snowpack tests.
Weather Summary
The cold continues, with a warm respite arriving on the weekend along with snow.
Wed will see the coldest temps (-30*C), with gradually warming Thurs and a marked increase on Fri (-9*C!!). Winds remain light at ridgetop, while strongly stripping away any exposed skin in the valley bottoms.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
- Exercise caution on steep, unsupported slopes.
- Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
The Nov 17 and Dec 5 surface hoar are down ~75cm and ~35cm respectively, and most reactive around tree line. These layers have shown 'sudden' results in snowpack tests and have been failing on steep, unsupported features.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5