Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Blue River, Clearwater, Clemina, North Monashee, Premier.
The snowpack is untrustworthy after going through dramatic weather fluctuations. Conservative low-angle routes are recommended.
Confidence
Low
Avalanche Summary
Large storm and persistent slab avalanches (size 2 to 3) were reported on Monday on Tuesday, along with some large cornice failures. Most activity was on north-facing slopes. Wet loose avalanches were also observed on Tuesday and likely continued during the warm weather on Wednesday.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 15 cm of new snow may accumulate by Thursday afternoon. Recent warming and rain have likely soaked the upper snowpack at treeline elevations, while some dry snow may exist on shaded alpine slopes.
There is a significant concern that small avalanches willl step down to deeper persistent weak layers. These consist of surface hoar, facets, or a crust:
The early March layer down 50 to 100 cm. This is the primary weak layer of concern.
Mid-Feb & Late-Jan layers down 80 to 180 cm. These layers could be triggered with heavy loads like a cornice fall or a smaller avalanche in motion.
Weather Summary
Wednesday Night
Cloudy with 1 to 5 cm of snow above 1600 m. 20 km/h southeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 2000 m.
Thursday
Cloudy with 10 to 15 cm of snow. 30 km/h east ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level drops from 2000 m to 1000 m.
Friday
Mostly cloudy with 5 cm of snow. 10 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.
Saturday
Cloudy with 10 to 20 cm of snow. 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- In times of uncertainty, conservative terrain choices are our best defense.
- Stick to simple terrain or small features with limited consequence.
- Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain; avalanches may run surprisingly far.
- Avoid travelling on slopes below cornices.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent weak layers in the snowpack have the potential to produce very large avalanches. We have limited information about the problem in this region, but enough to recommend choosing low-angle terrain at this time.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 4
Wind Slabs
New snow on Thursday will likely form wind slabs along ridgelines.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Cornices
Cornices may fail and trigger slabs on the slopes below.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5