Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Dogtooth, East Purcell, Purcells, West Purcell.
Start early, watch the crust closely, and end your day before it completely breaks down.
Don't forget about the deeply buried weak layers that may avalanche as the snowpack heats up.
Confidence
Low
Avalanche Summary
On Wednesday, there were a few small wet loose avalanches from slopes facing the sun.
Observations are very limited at this time of year.
Snowpack Summary
A thin, soft surface crust is likely to form overnight and break down each day. On northerly slopes in the alpine, there is 10 to 30 cm of preserved soft snow over settled old snow. Everywhere else there is a thick crust buried 10 to 20 cm deep.
Concern remains for the lower snowpack, which contains weak, sugary facets that may cause large avalanches if the upper snowpack loses strength during prolonged warm temperatures.
Weather Summary
Friday Night
Clear skies. 10 to 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 1 °C. Freezing level 2600 m.
Saturday
Mix of sun and cloud. 10 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 6 °C. Freezing level 2700 m.
Sunday
Mix of sun and cloud with 2 cm/mm of snow/rain. 10 to 15 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 4 °C. Freezing level 2600 m.
Monday
Mostly cloudy with 1 to 2 cm/mm of snow/rain. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 3 °C. Freezing level 2400 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- The more the snowpack warms up and weakens, the more conservative your terrain selection should be.
- Avoid steep, sun-exposed slopes when the air temperature is warm or when solar radiation is strong.
- Avalanche danger will increase as the surface crust breaks down.
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
Avalanche Problems
Wet Slabs
Multiple days of warm temperatures and minimal overnight cooling may cause large, wet slab avalanches. Wet loose avalanches are almost certain to occur.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3
Cornices
Cornices are more likely to fail during warm weather.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
The base of the snowpack contains weak sugary facets. As the snowpack heats up and loses strength over the coming days, these deeply buried weak layers may cause large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5