Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 26th, 2013–Feb 27th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Purcells.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Possible sunny breaks with isolated flurries, winds moderate from the west and alpine temperatures -10. Freezing level rising to 1100m.Thursday: Light snow, winds light from the west and alpine temperatures of -7. Freezing level rising to 1500m.Friday: Light snow throughout the day, light southwesterly winds and alpine temperatures -4. Freezing level rising to 1600.

Avalanche Summary

Slab avalanches to size 1.5 were ski cut in the region on Sunday. Recent explosives testing in the southern portion of the region producing slab avalanches to size 2 isolated to the storm snow.

Snowpack Summary

Light to locally moderate amounts of new snow have fallen adding to an ongoing storm snow instability, particularly on the west side of the region where accumulations have been highest. The new snow is most likely reactive as a wind slab  in exposed terrain or as loose snow in sheltered areas.  The variably reactive February 12th and 15th surface hoar layers now exist up to 80cm below the surface and seem most prevalent on the west side of the region. This interface may also be reactive on solar aspects where a sun crust exists. A surface hoar layer buried on February 23 is still on the radar of some operators. This layer has been less likely to trigger by skiers, but may still be sensitive to large loads like avalanches in motion or cornice fall. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and strong.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Where higher recent accumulations exist, triggering storm slabs may be likely, especially in wind-affected areas. In sheltered terrain the new snow may react as a loose dry avalanche.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Loading from new snow and wind may add reactivity to persistent buried surface hoar layers. In deeper snowfall areas, resulting avalanches may be large.
Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5