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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 22nd, 2016–Mar 23rd, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Pay attention to daytime heating.  Windslabs and cornices will become more reactive as temperature increases

Weather Forecast

Clear this morning with increasing cloud in the afternoon as pacific front moves inland.  Freezing levels are forecasted to reach 1700m today with an alpine high of -2 deg and variable ridgetop wind gusting to 25kph.  Starting tonight(Tues) through Thursday up to 20 cm of new snow is forecast.

Snowpack Summary

We experienced a good overnight freeze last night, and the snowpack should be crusted over to 2000m. Windslab exists on alpine lee features. Last week's storm snow is well settled with the warm temps and sits over crusts on solar aspects. The Feb 27 interface is down 70cm and is more sensitive on steep solar aspects.

Avalanche Summary

Over the weekend there was a number of avalanches triggered by cornice fall. Monday's warm temps triggered a natural avalanche cycle to sz 2.5, with avalanches leaving moist deposits. Freezing levels have dropped significantly which has improved avalanche hazard at treeline & below

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Previous SW winds have created soft slabs in the alpine and promoted rapid cornice growth. Cornice failure has the potential to trigger deeper layers in the snowpack. Avoid spending time underneath these beasts & give a wide berth on ridges.
Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Buried crusts and associated weak layers have created persistent instabilities on solar aspects. Recent storm snow sits on top of crusts 30-50cm down. Feb 27 interface down 80-120cm still producing sudden planar results. Take the time to evaluate.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3