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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 19th, 2019–Dec 22nd, 2019
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Waterton Lakes.

Storm's a comin'!!!! Heavy snow and/or rain, extreme winds, and rapid warming will lead to a widespread avalanche cycle. This is a great weekend to avoid avalanche terrain by sitting in front of a warm fire.

Weather Forecast

An incoming storm will bring extreme southwest winds, warm temperatures and heavy precipitation peaking on Friday. Freezing levels are somewhat uncertain but will likely be between 1700m and  2000m, bringing rain to the valley bottoms. Precipitation amounts will vary across the park, with some models calling for upwards of 70cm at Akamina Pass.

Snowpack Summary

New snow will be falling on variable wind affected surfaces from extreme west winds. A weak crust facet combo formed in November is down 60cm, and additional crust/facet layers formed in October form the bottom of the snowpack. These are less of a problem in deeper snowpack areas along the divide, but may be overloaded with incoming snow.

Avalanche Summary

No recent natural activity has been observed but this will change rapidly with the incoming precipitation and wind.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The incoming storm will bring heavy snowfall accompanied by 140km/h+ southwest winds and rain at lower elevations. Avalanche activity will peak on Friday and Saturday.

  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Melt freeze crusts and facets from early season snowfalls are lurking at the bottom of the snowpack. This layer may come alive again with loading form the incoming storm.

  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
  • Good day to make conservative terrain choices.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3