Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 1st, 2019 4:09PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Wet.

mconlan, Avalanche Canada

Northwest Inland.

Snow will fall with strong winds at high elevations and rain at lower elevations on Tuesday night. The coming days will be tricky to manage due to rapid changes with elevation. It will be best to stay on low-angled slopes and avoid overhead exposure.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with light rainfall at lower elevations and otherwise snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, strong southwest winds, alpine temperature 0 C, freezing level 1600 m.WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, moderate west winds, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level 900 m.THURSDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, moderate south winds, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 500 m.FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 cm, moderate to strong west winds, alpine temperature -7 C, freezing level 300 m.

Avalanche Summary

Three MIN reports all describe recent avalanche activity around the Smithers area. The avalanches were generally described as hard wind slabs, with some scrubbing to the ground through the faceted snow described in the snowpack summary. Check them out here, here, and here. We often have a hard time getting reports of avalanche activity from this region, so if you see anything, please post your observations to the Mountain Information Network! (MIN). Thanks!

Snowpack Summary

Expect fresh wind slabs to form with up to 20 cm of new snow falling with strong southwest winds. These will sit on lingering hard wind slabs from last weekend. Below about 1500 m, expect rain to make the snow surface soggy, before freezing into a melt-freeze crust.Buried under recent storm snow, you may find one or two weak layers in sheltered areas comprising of feathery surface hoar crystals and/or sugary faceted snow. The upper layer may have been buried around December 22 and is likely 30-50 cm below the surface. The lower one was buried in early-December and is now approximately 80-120 cm below the surface. Deeper in the snowpack, there are several crusts including an early-season crust with faceted snow near the bottom of the snowpack.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Expect fresh wind slabs from new snowfall and associated strong southwest winds. Should enough snowfall accumulate, you may find touchy slabs in sheltered areas too.

Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard wind slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Loose Wet

Watch for loose wet avalanches at lower elevations where the precipitation may fall as rain. Rain will likely make the snow soggy and reactive to human traffic, until it freezes.

Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.Snow conditions will vary rapidly with elevation.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Valid until: Jan 2nd, 2019 2:00PM