Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Coast.
Recent storm slabs likely remain triggerable by riders on Tuesday. Tune into any signs of instability like cracking, whumphing or recent avalanches as indicators to back off into lower angle or less wind-loaded terrain.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.
Weather Forecast
Monday night: Snowfall 15-25 cm, 40-60 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -1 C. Freezing level 1100 m.
Tuesday: Snowfall around 10 cm, 20-30 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -2 C. Freezing level 1100 m.
Wednesday: Flurries around 5 cm, 10-20 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -4 C. Freezing level 1000 m.
Thursday: Snowfall bringing 20-30 cm, 30-40 km/h south wind, treeline temperature -3 C. Freezing level 1100 m.
Avalanche Summary
Over the weekend, explosives and ski cuts produced loose dry and soft slab avalanches up to size 1. On Saturday a few small to medium sized storm slabs were triggered by skiers, as reported in this MIN from Sky Pilot.
Snowpack Summary
50-80 cm of heavy, moist snow appears to be bonding well to a hard melt-freeze crust that exists on all aspects up to 1500 m and to the mountain tops on sun-exposed slopes.
A few other melt-freeze crusts are found in the top 100 cm of the snowpack but appear to be progressively bonding.
The remainder of the snowpack is well-bonded.
Terrain and Travel
- Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
- Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
- Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
- Avoid steep, unsupported slopes.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Recent storm slabs likely remain triggerable by riders. They most likely place to trigger a storm slab is in wind loaded terrain features.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5